popular thinking

POPULARITY AND THE OSCARS

As I told Maria Stephanos last night on FOX25, this year's crop of Best Picture nominees is an underachieving bunch. Maria quibbled, but I asked her, "How many people do you know who've actually seen Munich?"
Some things to take away from the full list of nominees...
1. When Steven Spielberg decides to make a weighty movie, the Academy will pay attention.
2. When someone else makes a movie that tries too hard to be important with a capital IMPORTANT, the Academy will feel compelled to pay attention. That's you, Crash.
3. Terrence Howard got recognized as much by his full year of work as much as he got honored for Hustle & Flow -- although the story of a pimp just wanting to make it in show bidness certainly rang true for many in the Academy, I'm sure. Howard had great supporting turns in both Crash and Get Rich or Die Tryin' last year.
4. I said from the moment I walked out of Walk The Line that Reese Witherspoon should get Oscar consideration, but Academy voters tend to like gritty, gender-bending or against-type roles like the one Felicity Huffman turned in for Transamerica, so expect a close vote, and don't be too surprised if that opens the door for one of the other nominees to squeak out the Best Actress win. Don't worry, Charlize Theron will look ravishing on Oscar night regardless.
5. Oscar voters tend to reward actors one year late. That means you, Paul Giamatti.
6. Philip Seymour Hoffman is one of the most amazing actors of my generation.
7. As in many years, the Supporting Actress category is most likely to produce a surprising winner.
8. Several categories had only three nominees, most particular among them, Best Song. Is that a political statement that even Academy voters don't want to sit through five songs on Oscar night?
9. I'll go through all the categories when March 5 approaches, so please come back again.

Here was my report in today's Herald:
“Brokeback Mountain,” “Capote,” “Crash,” “Good Night, and Good Luck” and “Munich” — not a blockbuster in the bunch nominated yesterday for Oscar’s Best Picture.
Could the mere honor of being nominated help make one a hit?
“ ‘Capote’ stands the most to gain because it has grossed the least,” said Brandon Gray, who runs BoxOfficeMojo.com.
The movie, starring Best Actor front-runner Philip Seymour Hoffman as writer Truman Capote, has earned only $15 million so far, but it’s only been showing in 348 locations nationwide. It will expand to twice as many screens this weekend.
More moviegoers are likely to see “Brokeback Mountain,” too, which moves to more than 2,000 screens this weekend, from 1,200 two weeks ago.
“I don’t think ‘Brokeback Mountain’ has peaked yet, because it is the Oscar leader,” Gray said. “And it will have an even more aggressive marketing and promotional push, which should take it to $100 million. At this point, it’d be disappointing if ‘Brokeback’ didn’t do $100 million.”
“Crash,” meanwhile, already is out on DVD. “And that’s as good a place to be as the movie theater,” Gray said.
He said Universal made as much on “Ray” from DVD sales as it did at the box office.
Last year’s Best Picture contenders also failed to rally popular support at the box office, earning a collective $205 million before their Oscar nominations. The year’s eventual winner, “Million Dollar Baby,” had only opened in 147 theaters by that point; it earned 91 percent of its eventual $100 million after its nomination.
Three years ago, “Chicago,” earned $64 million before its nomination, another $69 million before the Oscars telecast and $37 million more upon winning.
Some moviegoers want to see all Best Picture contenders before the ceremony, scheduled this year for March 5.
But Gray wishes the Academy would pick movies the public already likes.
“This is just about alienating the public. And 2005, look what happened. A terribly lousy year for movies,” he said. “You put in ‘Batman Begins,’ ‘Pride and Prejudice,’ and ‘Walk the Line,’ especially ‘Walk the Line,’ and then you’d have a race that people actually care about.”

Blockbusters need not apply
This year’s five nominees for the Best Picture Oscar have earned $186,285,204 — just as much as “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” the movie that coupled Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie. Here’s how their box-office earnings compared with the Top 5-grossing movies of 2005...

BOX OFFICE LEADERS:
“Star Wars: Episode III — Revenge of the Sith,” $380,270,577
“Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire,” $286,301,035
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe,” $277,867,308
“War of the Worlds,” $234,280,354
“King Kong,” $213,160,170

BEST PICTURE CONTENDERS:
“Brokeback Mountain,” $51,024,343
“Capote,” $15,305,837
“Crash,” $53,404,817
“Good Night, and Good Luck,” $25,134,582
“Munich,” $40,647,785