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Election prediction!

Published Sunday, October 31, 2004 by seanlmccarthy | E-mail this post

I just had to add my two cents to BuzzMachine, where Jeff Jarvis is soliciting predictions for Nov. 2.

This is what I wrote:

Post-NFL, pre-election prediction: Since the Washington Redskins lost to Green Bay following a late penalty flag, that would seem to point to a last-minute Kerry squeaker.
Popular vote: 50% Kerry, 48% Bush, 1% Nader, 1% Badnarik.
Electoral College: Kerry 298, Bush 240. If Colorado's Amendment 36 passes, make that Kerry 294, Bush 244.
Big turnout tips scales to Kerry. Kerry also gets help from Yucca Mountain angst in Nevada, Colorado's senate race and Ohio unions.
Bush wins Florida, thanks Jeb again.
Kerry has big early lead causing networks to call it before midnight, but overnight and days following make the outcome less certain in several states, with potential Bush lawsuits challenging Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio. Kerry may counter by challenging Florida.

Less realistic prediction? Colorado voters approve Amendment 36, and Nader gets 10% of that state's popular vote, earning him an Electoral College vote and possibly preventing either Kerry or Bush from outright victory.

I am rooting for an Amendment 36 win in Colorado, because that would force the nation to confront Electoral College reform -- something the Republicans and Democrats are unwilling to do because the system protects them against third parties and an actual variety of voices and choices.