popular thinking

Two weeks have passed since U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., announced his running mate and potential vice president. Since then, the Republicans have launched a media blitz across the cable TV landscape (or as I like to call it, "Chatty Chatty Bang Bang") to trumpet how John Edwards "lacked bounce" for the Democratic ticket. This theme is picked up again today in the Christian Science Monitor.
But what everyone forgets, and by everyone I mean the Republicans and the media, is that the supposed swing in voter preferences comes historically not with the vice presidential selection but with the national conventions.
Kerry picked Edwards 20 days before the Democratic National Convention.
Past presidential wannabes got their so-called "bounce" precisely because the VP selection came about as part of the convention.
To wit, some recent examples of the VP selection, and timing relative to that party's confab (big ups to the San Francisco Chronicle for doing the legwork):
2000: Gore picked Lieberman, 7 days before
2000: W. picked Cheney, 6 days before
1996: Dole picked Kemp, 2 days before
1992: Clinton picked Gore, 4 days before
1988: Papa Bush picked Quayle, second day of convention
1988: Dukakis picked Bentsen, 6 days before
1984: Mondale picked Ferraro, 4 days before
1980: Reagan picked Papa Bush, third day of convention
1976: Carter picked Mondale, and Ford picked Dole, both on the last day of their respective conventions. Now that there is some bounce, and some drama.
The Gallup poll from July 8-11 showed Kerry-Edwards edging ahead of Bush-Cheney and Nader-Camejo, from 47%-48%-3% in late June to 50%-45%-2% in mid-July, but the changes fell within the two polls' margins of error. Ergo, no real bounce.
Yet if you go back and read that Christian Science Monitor story referenced above, or re-examine any of the initial media reports from July 6, you'll learn that the Bush campaign's prediction of a 15-point bounce in the polls was to coincide not from the VP selection, but from the Democratic hullabaloo in the Hub. Gallup also points out that the conventions, Dem and GOP, both provide the real bounce to the presidential campaigns, mostly because the tickets get a full week of full exposure to the electorate.
Of course, this year may be truly different, as the American voting population appears to be as politically divided as it has ever been since Gallup and all the other poll takers began helping the media turn elections into horse races.
So we'll just have to wait until November to see which way the political ball bounces.